Open Future New Zealand

Resolving Wicked Problems

Seven Wicked Problems Here are two alternative views of wicked problems. On the left a modern view. And below a graphic from 30 years ago. The point is that in a changing world where everything has flows, stores and feedback loops, no problem can be resolved in isolation. Trying to fix one problem can easily make another issue worse.

On the left are the key issues chosen in 2020, by Sarkar and Kotler. Let's make it simple. The top five are all connected. They can't be resolved if the political powers in a country choose not to take the problems seriously. This is not the view, an educated person like me, is supposed to support. The political will to resolve these problems doesn't exist. Let's stop pretending.

There are hundreds of interconnected "problems" and none of them can be solved with the present methods or with our present understanding of cause and effect. If key political and economic institutions are making money and gaining power from the current situation, then change led from top is not going to happen. Graphic image Problematique

Frequently the people in power choose to use their position to improve personal, institutional or tribal wealth. Corruption, terrorism, warfare and grand theft, are commonly tools of government too, not just criminals and "terrorists".

In trying to write anything sensible and understandable about wicked problems I found myself quickly buried in a morass of issues, writing many pages and getting nowhere. Why? I've decided that while climate change, the Covid-19 pandemic, terrorism and civil war top the list of current "problems," they can't be resolved because seemingly less important issues like inequality and inability to earn a living, remain unresolved.

I now see, that some ten years ago, when the concept of an "Open Future," was an ideal that seemed achievable, I was excessively optimistic. I assumed that despite our differences people could and would unite, to save the Earth they know, and to protect humanity. I now doubt that we have the political will to do that. I had hoped that international co-operation, the building of consent, the making of new rules and better laws, and the goodwill of governments and institutions would prevail. I don't see that now. Rather we seem determined to do battle.

The Good Actors View

Mainstream media promote a view that I once hoped could be enacted. Surely, both people and their governments want to do the right thing. We tried to master nature, to take control and turn everything to our own advantage. We hoped to live long increasingly prosperous lives. We didn't understand what we were doing, that Earth's resources are limited, that population growth at some stage will be stopped. There are many limiting forces controlling our possible future outcomes.

There is a price for our failure to understand the limits of our powers. Many of these adverse consequences we can now predict, all of them creating massive disruption to human life on Earth. More frequent storms, floods and droughts, creating a loss of property, declining income, food supply issues, drinking water shortages, and the mass migration of millions of people. Water issues and loss of agricultural viability are already causing civil war (Syria) and regional disputes (North Africa). Social, Economic and political disruption will become more widespread.

If we are the good actors we claim to be, what we have broken can be fixed. Or have we denied reality for so long that remediation is not now possible?.

The Bad Actors View

Shakespeare was aware that "power corrupts" and if you look at social and political history you can see the power of small groups, essentially a "family" or tribe; people with close ties to each other. Think about the Court of English Monarch, Henry the Eighth. It helped to know the king and those close to him, but the rule of law was weak, except for the orders of the King. Surely, that would be unacceptable today!

Except in too many countries of the world, the nation state is still run in very much that way. Even in countries that claim to be "democratic," small groups, often family, often with links into the police, the legal profession and the military, become so powerful that they rule, with impunity, for decades.

Thanks to the Internet and to 24 hour news coverage, in many countries of the world, the fragility of the law, the connection between political power, the military, security services, the police and business, is often exposed. Bad actors often use political power to steal the resources of a country for their own ends. Sometimes terrorist groups or a drug cartel, do the stealing. There is political support somewhere, connection with the mainstream, that enables police corruption, rebel army's, drug cartels, over fishing, illegal mining, people smuggling, slavery, or piracy as examples. "Criminal" activities are sustained by, money laundering via casino's, or property deals, or false invoicing, which lawyers, banks and politicians facilitate. Do they turn a blind eye, or do they encourage this activity? That probably depends on how secure they are about future revelations.

In the world as it is, Russia, or China, or even the USA, will use the power of veto in the Security Council to protect governments they favour against criticism. All three have supported dictators, and military governments around the world, when it "protects their interests." There is lip service to democracy and human rights, in favour of political and economic advantage.

The Club of Rome

The Club of Rome was established to focus on "The Problématique", the wicked problems that seemed to refuse all efforts at solution; perhaps they are impossible problems. In the thinking of the time (1968) the best way forward was to for a group of high powered politicians, scientists philosophers and diplomats, often recently retired; to study the issue. (They have already tried to work on these issues and failed. Many believe that such experience shouldn't be wasted in retirement.) There is an assumption here that the leaders of the world are "Good Actors," and that top down decision making is both essential and likely to be effective.

The Club of Rome commissioned MIT to attempt to model the world system, and to predict the future for some of the key variables. Three years later (1972) the book "Limits to Growth" was published.

"Limits to Growth" was strongly criticised, especially by economists. However in 2008, Graham Turner of the CSIRO in Australia found that 30 years later the actual historical data compared very well with the business as usual scenario predicted by "Limits to Growth".

The Club of Rome has worked with the United Nations in constructing the global objectives to eliminate hunger, poverty and infectious diseases. The original plan was Agenda 21, which is generally considered a success. The latest plan is "Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development," and it's a challenge to us all.

There is often deep resentment to Agenda 21 or the new Agenda 2030, in the USA, on the assumption that it's the United Nations trying to constrain American economic and political power. That's not helpful, but Russia, China, and India, just to name three, have other agendas too.

The Club of Rome is still active. "The Climate Emergency Plan of the Club of Rome," was launched on December 4th 2018 at the European Parliament. They called on governments across the world to declare a "Climate Emergency", and provided a plan of action. In March 2019 they issued an official statement in support of Greta Thunberg.

In response to the current global issues, they offered another plan for the "Planetary Emergency," (September 2019).

That was before the Covid-19 Pandemic, and the plan was updated, to include the Covid-19 pandemic, it's opportunities and threats, in August 2020.

Inequality : Livelihood : Welfare Failure : Voting Power : Health : Housing

This cluster of problems are at the heart of humanities failure.

There are always people who will be poor, yes, but when a society neglects social welfare, when inequality in education, income, housing and health care is significant, people cannot play their proper role as citizens. In some countries religious of ethnic mistrust may cause inequality. The treatment of women and girls is commonly discriminatory. In addition economic and social exclusion probably means people are unlikely to vote. Of course in many countries the vote is rigged anyway. The elite take what they want, and the general population do the best they can.

Ask yourself; is the country really democratic, or is political power controlled by a small group of people.

I will argue that in Russia, China, India, and the USA, the existing political and economic elite, pretend to be democratic. Being democratic is hard, it constrains what a government can do. It gives some power to people who are not "elite." The founding fathers in the USA were very specific about that. They were determined that the USA would be controlled by white landowners, people like themselves. They have largely been successful. The real interest of those in power is political strength. Look at the use of the veto in the Security Council, to see what really matters to the big five.

Corruption - The Abuse of Power - Malign Governance

Enabling nation states, companies and individuals to use "privacy", commercial sensitivity, or "classified documents" to hide their misdeeds is normal. The Panama Papers reveal a chain of arms deals and drug deals and the theft of resources, enabled by "open for business policies, tax havens, and willing banks. There are "blind eyes" everywhere.

We keep pretending that we cannot "see" the corruption when "our friends" are doing it. It's not good enough to say "everyone does it." Commonly the funding of political parties buys favour that is a corruption of the democratic process.

What price should we pay for major contract work, or armaments, for pharmaceuticals or for access to politicians? Is there a "commission" payable to a gatekeeper? Do we over-pay for some goods and services just because a government department is seen to have deep pockets? Corruption is "smart business" according to many. International trade is often negotiated with the payment of bribes. In many countries the payment of bribes is a tax deductible "expense of doing business."

Laying false criminal charges against political rivals, is a common corrupt practice.

Population and Migration

The human population of the Earth is excessive, but it's not a topic that polite people wish to discuss. Business as Usual is destroying the Earth and is not making human life better. Turning a blind eye to what we would rather not see, won't resolve the problem. Eventually the elephant in the room must be dealt with.

Climate Change is decreasing the water supply in cities, decreasing agricultural output, making it harder to earn a living, causing droughts and storms. This is causing land conflicts, protests, strikes, civil wars and mass migration. There are pressures building in many countries, demanding change, but also strong support for the status quo. The civil war in Syria, now ten years and ongoing, is an example of an undesirable outcome.

Extremism - Terrorism - Warfare

To make acts of terrorism punishable in severe ways, doesn't address the cause. Terrorism is usually the act of desperate and powerless people. Addressing the top five issues in the Sarkar and Kotler Wicked Problems model, would be helpful. Working seriously on the Agenda 2030 program would be a way forward.

In today's world, a good question might be, What sort of extremist do I choose to be? There is so much happening that we can see, and that we know is harmful. For instance the sale of arms and weapons of war is often encouraged by governments, but also has a huge and corrupt black market. That is not on the table as a activity likely to be stopped. Where do you think it's important to be active?

Terrorist choose that method of getting attention because they feel that they lack power. They are (or they feel) excluded.

Sometimes we need to realise that governments can also feel desperate and powerless. We need recognise that the focus on strong police and/or military solutions by governments, creates terror, and destroys opportunity for improved outcomes. It's not appropriate for the army to control the government, in any country claiming to be democratic.

We have tried to:
Use the League of Nations and then the United Nations to stop warfare.
Nation states have used nationalism to unite people for political purposes. The powerful seek to identify the "other" and to claim the "right to wage a just war."
In the United Nations the 5 major powers have regularly abused their position to protect their "interests".

The failure of the Arab Spring, shows how established interests control the future.

Climate Collapse

Wet Bulb Temperature of 37 Degrees Celsius

Current predictions of mean temperature rises of 3 or 4 degrees Celsius, may not seem extreme. Here's the rub. When high temperature and high humidity combine, people can't use sweating to cool themselves. You can die in a few hours.

The CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology estimate the average number of days over 35C in Western Sydney could increase by up to five times by 2090.

Put another way, Western Sydney will have an extra month of days over 35C by 2090.

Mattheos Santamouris, a professor at the University of New South Wales, in Sydney, and a globally recognised expert on building cooler cities, believes that without action to help residents adapt to hotter summers, "many places" in Western Sydney will be abandoned over the next 20 to 30 years.

There is a threshold for this, a wet-bulb temperature of 37 degrees Celsius. (Anything above 35 degrees Celsius, endangers your health.)

In this situation working outdoors is almost impossible. Living and working indoors is only possible if the air conditioning is working. In very hot conditions maintenance of the electrical grid is problematic, and remember that line repair (outdoor work) may not be possible.

Think about all the coastal tropical regions of the world. They may become places were human habitation is difficult or impossible. Certainly, the huge populations that live there now will need to relocate.

That takes no account of how other plants and animals will cope. We depend on them for our survival too.

Covid-19 has shown us that it's possible to reduce economic activity and our carbon footprint, if we have to. There are no sensible numbers yet on the climate impact of that, but it's small. But to contain global warming we have to do that and more every year for the next 20 years. People are already demanding a return to business as usual. If we are wise that can never happen. But a return to business must happen, people need to have a livelihood.

So how do we proceed? The targets of Agenda 2030, and taking strong action on climate mitigation is our hope. Fifteen years ago, I was sure that good outcomes could be achieved. Now, because I see bad actors in too many places, I doubt that it's possible.